Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Re-booty

More thoughts on oil and cars. It may be time to restore the system to an earlier date. And why is it that we always have to feel the pain of mega-industries?

Barack Obama rode to power on a car running on green fuel and with gasoline becoming more expensive than milk. And so his message of energy savings and independence did find receptive ears, obviously. By November 4, the shock of $145 plus per barrel of oil was still reverberating in the bones of the car-addicted, even while the sinking economy was beginning to drag down energy prices as well. Within a week of launching his presidency, Obama already put the issue on the table as an early priority. And it makes sense, given that the Big Three failed miserably to devise sustainable strategies in the past and now their gradual demise may well squeeze the entire supplier industry. So what did President Obama have to say?

"We will commit ourselves to steady, focused, pragmatic pursuit of an America
that is freed from our energy dependence, and empowered by a new energy economy
that puts millions of our citizens to work. … Now is the time to meet the
challenge of this crossroads of history, by choosing a future safer for our
country, prosperous for our planet, and sustainable."

Turn up the volume
The reaction from the auto industry was predictable. As David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) told the New York Times: “It would have a devastating effect on everybody, and not just the domestics.” The auto industry has always, consistently and vociferously resisted changing its polluting and gas-guzzling ways for decades and decades. And they have done so by spending vast amounts of money on lobbyists (such as the CAR) that would have been better spent developing new technology. But the bucks were rolling in, and a vast nation of sheep was out there purchasing those ridiculous SUVs blithely ignoring the plain fact that the stuff running their car was coming from foreign soil and was not doing the atmosphere any good. In fact, a whole lobby was created to explain that pollution doesn't exist nor has it an effect on people and the environment. Well, that will sell to people who are willing to believe that dinosaurs stalked the earth with humans 6000 years ago.

The issue of energy dependence or independence is hardly a new one. But in a world in which anyone over 50 is considered a rusting hulk at the bottom of the ocean, and most young people clamp their brains between ear buds that blast them full of commercial thumping, a certain transfer of data has gone missing. Thirty-one years ago, then President Carter had this to say at his State of the Union Address:

“Never again should we neglect a growing crisis like the shortage of energy,
where further delay will only lead to more harsh and painful solutions…. Now we
know what we must do, increase production. We must cut down on waste. And we
must use more of those fuels which are plentiful and more permanent. We must be
fair to people, and we must not disrupt our Nation's economy and our budget.”

The path of least resistance
Then came Whitewash Reagan and suddenly Carter’s good intentions went out the window, alas. In the Happy Days mode, Americans felt it was OK to "move on" and live for the day, buying any car they liked, any car that Detroit wanted to foist upon them. Thus, every Tom, Dick and Jane with an inferiority complex could buy some huge device made for chasing terrorists in the desert and ride from home to the general store, shop and never witch off their engine. Anyone suggesting that this was absurd, that pollution was a real danger, that such vehicles were unnecessary or, heaven forbid, more money should be invested in public transportation, was laughed off the map or even called a Commie or Socialist. The latter two buzzwords, by the way, are always pulled out of the hat when someone feels humungous profits threatened, or some redneck is trying to sound smart. Most would not even recognize Communism if it came out of the corn syrup dispenser at House of Pancakes. Let's face it.

The price of oil was so cheap that innovation could no longer be marketed properly. That was the message from the scientific community, at any rate. At the Research Institutes in Garching, some scientists had found a very effective method to recycle heat using heat pumps and a silicate. But with oil at $12 or so a barrel, no way to get the system into the market where it belonged.
1+1=3
Indeed, in the 30 years between the oil shocks of the 70s and now, the entire world has changed. There can be no doubt that given the right leadership, human endeavor would have easily found a viable alternative to the internal combustion engine (the research was being done, there is no doubt, but it was kept away from the public, since the old system was working so well). But for that, it would have taken real leaders in power, not industry shills and professional deskmen with deep pockets like the class of pol that has risen to the top. Because the problem is not just in the USA. The German and French auto industries also jumped on the gas-guzzle bandwagon and hollered foul each time it was asked to mend its ways. The ADAC, Germany’s automobile club, has consistently lobbied against any regulation, for example. And the CAR equivalent in Germany, the VDA, has done nothing but put on the brakes. In the 70s, attempts were made to limit speeds on German highways, which are to this day the last bastion of official motoring hooliganism in Europe (barring country roads in places like Croatia, Hungary and Serbia, where the momma’s boys are also plentiful and need to counteract their inherent anger by driving big cars and stepping on the gas). These attempts were reversed by the groundswell of conservatism that swept the nation as of 1983. What a shame. By now, we would be used to going slower.

So we have to reboot to a different time, to an era in which we had a chance, like the 1970s. And the industry will squeak. It is doing so already. At an environmental forum in July in Magedeburg, Germany, hosted by Daimler, among others, all the lobbyists were present, sweating away for their masters, pleading to let the free market do its magic. The time may have come to let them grovel and plead. The last time we gave in to them, they ran off with the cash register and trashed the place.

(More to come on this topic, of course… so stay posted)

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